摘要
本文采用我国30个省市2007~2016年的相关数据,运用面板平滑转移回归模型(PSTR)建模考察社会保障对人身意外险需求的门槛效应,以及在社会保障发展条件下人身意外险需求的影响因素。研究发现,社会保障水平对人身意外险需求存在非线性影响,以平滑转换的位置参数为界,当前我国大多数样本省份处于低体制区间,少量样本省份处于高体制区间。低体制下,社会保障水平、受教育程度、总抚养比与人身意外险需求呈显著的正相关关系;高体制下,仅有社会保障水平、受教育程度是与人身意外险需求显著正相关的变量。另外,人均国内生产总值、总抚养比和城市化率等变量在体制转换后可能对人身意外险需求产生抑制作用。研究结论对于社会保障制度建设、人身意外险市场发展具有启示意义。
Adopting data from 30 provinces of China during 2007 -2016 and applying the Panel Smooth Transition Regression （PSTR）, this paper investigated the threshold effect of social security on personal accident insurance （PAI） demands and examined the determinants of demands for PAI in China along with the development of social security system. The research results showed that the level of social security had a nonlinear impact on the demand for PAI. Among the two regimes divided by a threshold position point, most of the sample provinces were in the low regime, while a small number of sample provinces were in the high regime area. Social security, education and total dependency ratio had significant positive correlation with the demand of PAI in the low regime;only social security and education effected PAI demand significantly in the high regime. The gross domestic product per capita, total dependency ratio and the rate of urbanization could adversely affect the demand for PAI when the regime switched from low to high level. Our empirical results have a great significance for social security and PAI insurance market development.
作者
潘国臣
池璐
PAN Guochen;CHI Lu
出处
《保险研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期100-109,共10页
Insurance Studies
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71271157)资助
