摘要
利用皮尔逊相关系数对影响道路交通事故的机动车驾驶员各违法行为与道路交通事故等4项指标相关性进行了分析。结果表明:机动车驾驶员各违法行为与道路交通事故总数、死亡人数及受伤人数具有显著的相关性。为进一步了解机动车驾驶员各违法行为与道路交通事故4项指标的相关程度的大小,找到与4项指标相关度最高的机动车驾驶员违法行为,并提出了一种改进灰色综合关联度模型对其关联度进行了分析。结果表明:驾驶员无证驾驶违法行为与道路交通事故总数、受伤人数及直接经济损失的灰色综合关联度最高;未按规定让行违法行为与交通事故死亡人数的灰色综合关联度最高;逆向行驶、违法超车及超速行驶的与道路交通事故4项指标的灰色综合关联度也都很高。因此,在进行道路交通事故防治时,应重点减少驾驶员无证驾驶、未按规定让行、逆向行驶、违法超车及超速行驶违法行为的发生,从而有效地减少道路交通事故的发生及其带来的损失。
Pearson correlation coefficient was used to analyze the relevance between the illegal behaviors of motor vehicle drivers with four indicators of road traffic accidents.The results show that the illegal behavior of motor vehicle drivers is significantly correlated with the total number of road traffic accidents,the number of deaths and the number of injures.In order to further understand the correlation between driver＇s illegal behavior and four indicators of road traffic accidents,the motor vehicle driver＇s illegal behavior that had the highest correlation with the four indicators was obtained. And an improved gray comprehensive correlation degree model was proposed to analyze the correlation degree. The results show that driving without a license has the highest gray comprehensive correlation degree with the total number of road traffic accidents,the number of injures and the direct economic loss; the illegal behavior not to give way by rule has the highest gray comprehensive correlation degree with the number of deaths in traffic accidents; the illegal behaviors such as reverse driving,illegal overtaking and speeding also have high gray comprehensive correlation degree with four indicators of road traffic accidents.Therefore,in the prevention and treatment of road traffic accidents,reducing the occurrence of illegal behaviors such as driver driving without a license,not to give way by rule,reverse driving,illegal overtaking and speeding should be focused,so as to effectively reduce the occurrence of traffic accidents and losses caused by road traffic accidents.
作者
杨春风
庄灿
孙吉书
闫晓晨
YANG Chunfeng;ZHUANG Can;SUN Jishu;YAN Xiaochen(School of Civil and Transportation Engineering, Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,P. R. China)
出处
《重庆交通大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第4期87-95,共9页
Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University(Natural Science)
关键词
交通工程
皮尔逊相关分析
灰色关联度
交通事故
相关性
离差最大化
traffic engineering
Pearson correlation analysis
gray relational degree
traffic accident
relevance
maximizing deviation
