摘要
作为我国国民经济支柱型产业的房地产业,它的房价泡沫问题一直备受学者关注。本文首先从微观角度推导出影响房地产业供给和需求两方面的因素,并结合我国实际国情在具体实证分析时引入宏观因素即外部冲击。基于供给、需求和外部冲击三个角度利用状态空间模型分析得出了我国房地产的基础价值,并据此综合分析我国房价泡沫的问题。研究表明,在政府各种强劲的限制政策下,近年来我国房地产业的泡沫虽然累积增速趋缓,但仍然呈现出扩大的趋势,需要进一步防范金融风险,避免房价泡沫的进一步扩大。
As the real estate is a pillar industry of China＇s national economy, the housing price bubble has attracted much attention of scholars. In this paper, we first deduce the two factors which affect the supply and demand of real estate from the microscopic angle, and then we lead the macro factor named external shocks into the concrete empirical analysis when combined the actual situation of our country. Based on the three an-gles of supply, demand and external shocks, this paper analyzes the basic value of China＇s real estate by us-ing the model of state space, and then analyzes the problem of housing price bubble in china. Research shows that, although the cumulative growth speed of China＇s real estate bubble has slow down in a variety of strong government restrictions in recent years, it still shows a widening trend. We need to guard against financial risks and avoid further expansion of the housing bubble.
作者
李凡
LI Fan(Business school, Ningbo University,315211,Ningbo,Zhejiang , China)
出处
《特区经济》
2018年第5期105-109,共5页
Special Zone Economy
基金
国家社会科学基金项目“核心企业创新驱动产业集群升级的机理与模式研究”(15BGL030)
关键词
房价泡沫
供给
需求
外部冲击
housing price bubble
supply
demand
external shocks
