摘要
过去十五年,我国经济结构、宏观调控政策出现了较大的变化,对房地产价格波动产生了巨大影响。为了揭示这种变化对房地产价格波动的冲击,笔者对构建可变参数的状态空间模型进行了研究。相关研究表明,我国房地产市场处于刚性需求阶段,房地产价格波动存在棘轮效应,货币信贷投放、土地交易成本、城镇居民可支配收入和经济增长共同推动了房地产价格持续上涨,但从2008年以来,各变量对房地产价格波动影响保持了相对稳定状态。同时,研究还发现,近五年来,房地产市场出现脱离实体经济发展的趋势,形成了一定的泡沫,这是国家近年来加大房地产调控的主要原因。
Over the past fifteen years, China has experienced a lot of changes on economic structure and macro-regulation policy areas, each of which made the real estate prices fluctuate accordingly. This paper constructs the time-varying parameter state space model to reveal the impact of policy changes. Researches show that China＇s real estate market is a rigid demand market, and price fluctuations have the ratchet effect. Monetary credit, land transaction cost, disposable income of urban residents and economic growth had the main contribution to real estate price rise. This influence remained stable since 2008, but over the past five years, it turned out that the real estate price market grow outside the real economy and made a certain bubble, which is the main cause of the enforcement of real estate regulation.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第4期97-103,共7页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家社科基金项目"我国保障性住房基金及发展模式问题研究"(项目编号:11BJL017)之研究成果
关键词
房地产
价格波动
动态研究
Real Estate Price Fluctuation Dynamic Analysis
