摘要
海岛城市具有独特的社会经济发展轨迹以及碳排放特征。定量剖析海岛城市碳排放的演变趋势及其关键驱动因子,对于指导"低碳海岛城市"和"生态海岛城市"建设意义重大。以中国典型海岛城市舟山市为案例区,采用IPCC参考方法,测算2001-2015年间舟山市各部门的碳排放量,并运用STIRPAT扩展模型,定量分析能源强度、人均GDP以及城市化率等关键驱动因子对海岛城市碳排放的影响;在此基础上,结合情景分析技术对舟山市未来的碳排放量进行情景预测。结果表明:(1)2001-2015年间,舟山市碳排放量增加迅速,年均增长率达到32%,碳排放强度遵从先降后增的"U型"变化规律,年均值略高于厦门市。(2)岭回归分析表明城市化率对碳排放量的增加影响最大,其次为能源强度,人均GDP对碳排放的影响最弱。(3)舟山市经济增长与碳排放之间存在Kuznets曲线假说,且理论拐点将出现在人均GDP为10.46万元附近(2000年可比价)。(4)舟山市在2020年和2030年的碳排放总量将分别达到2142万t和4333万t。总体而言,产业结构低碳化和能源效率提升是缓解舟山市未来碳减排压力的有力抓手。
Island cities have unique economic development paths and characteristics of carbon emissions. Quantitatively examining the evolution trends and influencing factors of carbon emissions in island cities will play an important role in guiding the constructions of ＂lowcarbon city＂ and ＂eco-city＂. In this study, we chose Zhoushan Islands as a case study and used the IPCC guidelines methods to estimate its multi-sectoral carbon emissions during 2001-2015.Meanwhile, the STIRPAT model was applied to analyze the effects of energy intensity, GDP per capita and urbanization rate on carbon emissions. Based on the carbon emission effects, the future carbon emissions of Zhoushan Islands were then predicted by setting various socioeconomic scenarios. The results indicated that the carbon emissions in Zhoushan have a dramatical increase, with an annual growth rate of 32% since 2001, while carbon emissions intensity followed the U-shaped changing trend, and its annual mean value was higher than that of Xiamen city. In addition, the disaggregated analysis revealed urbanization rate was the most robust driving factor of increasing carbon emissions, and energy intensity was the secondary,and GDP per capita was the weakest factor. We also found evidences in support of inverted Ushaped curve relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions, and the theory inflection point of CO_2 emissions was found at 10.46×10~4 yuan of GDP per capita（calculated at2000 comparable prices）. According to our prediction, the total amount of carbon emissions in Zhoushan Islands by 2020 and 2030 may reach 2142 × 10~4 t CO_2 e, and 4333 × 104 t CO2 e,respectively. Overall, we suggested that low-carbonization of industrial structure and the improvement of energy efficiency would be the effective measures for future carbon emissions reduction of Zhoushan Islands.
作者
孙艳伟
李加林
李伟芳
马仁锋
SUN Yanwei;LI Jialinu;LI Weifang;MA Renfeng(Department of Geography ＆ Spatial Information Technology, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China;Marine Culture and Economic Research Center, Zhejiang Province, Ningbo 315211, Zhejiang, China)
出处
《地理研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第5期1023-1033,共11页
Geographical Research
基金
浙江省软科学项目(2016C35G2070007)
