摘要
在遵循评估指标自身数据质量可靠性高、与现实经济活动高度关联、能够比较全面反映经济发展状况三大原则的基础上,选取太空灯光亮度、电力消费量、货物周转量和金融机构中长期贷款额构建修正"克强指数",估算中国省域GDP增长率的真实值。基于1995~2013年30个省份的数据,在验证修正"克强指数"可以作为评估中国地区GDP数据准确性有效指标的基础上,结合官方统计的GDP增长率和模型拟合得出的GDP增长率,发现考察期内各省份GDP增长率的年均统计误差为0.55个百分点,其中17个省份的误差在0.5个百分点以内,反映中国地区GDP增长数据总体可靠。此外还发现,北京、上海、广东、浙江等部分经济发达省份近几年的GDP增速出现了持续低估的现象,这可能与现代服务业等"新经济"未被完全纳入GDP统计有关。
Following the three principles including the high data dependency of assessment in- dicator itself, high correlation with the real economic activities, and overall reflection of the eco- nomic operation, this paper selects the space lighting luminance, power eonsumption, turnover volume of goods and the amount of medium and long - term loans of intermediate institutions as the assessment indicators to build the revised ＂Keqiang index＂ for measuring the accuracy of the pro- vincial GDP growth rate in China. Based on the data of 30 provinces from 1995 to 2013, this pa- per firstly verifies that the revised ＂Keqiang index＂ can be regarded as an effeetive index to evalu- ate the accuracy of China＇ s provincial GDP, then the official GDP growth rate and the model fit- ting are put together to form a combined GDP growth rate. The result shows that the average statis- tical error of the 30 provinces＇ GDP growth rate during the study period is 0. 55 percentages, a- mong which the errors of 17 provinces are below 0. 5 percentages, indicating that the provincial GDP growth data of China is generally reliable. In addition, this paper also finds that the GDP growth data of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang with higher economic development are continuously underestimated in recent years due to the fact that ＂new economies＂ such as modern service industries are not fully integrated into GDP statistics.
作者
刘思明
臧梦玲
LIU Si - ming;ZANG Meng - ling(School of Statistics, University of International Business and Economics ,Beifing 100029 ,China;Department of Warehousing and Logistics ,Beijing Jingdong Century Trading Co, Ltd. ,Beijing 100176, China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第6期27-37,共11页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
基金
对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务专项资金项目"新经济背景下的统计测度方法的改革与创新"(CXT09-07)
