摘要
根据长江中下游地区75个站点1960-2012年逐日降水资料,选取最大日降水量作为极端降水指标,采用广义帕累托分布模型研究长江中下游地区极端降水重现期。将长江中下游地区在时间上分为1960-1980年和1981-2012年两个时间段,分别模拟十年一遇、二十年一遇、五十年一遇、百年一遇极端降水重现期的最大日降雨量。结果表明:在不同时期,不同的地区在相同重现期最大日降水量有显著区别。在不同重现期内,均是汉江流域最大日降水量较低,而长江中游干流和鄱阳湖区域最大日降水量较高;同时,在相同重现期内,不同时间段降水也有差异,1981-2012年重现期最大日降雨量平均比1960-1980年重现期最大日降雨量高5%左右。
Using daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 for 75 stations in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river region, selecting daily maximum precipitation as extreme precipitation index, return periods of extreme rainfall in the middle and lower Yangtze river region were studied with generalized pareto distribution model. The time series were divided into two periods, 1960-1980 and 1981-2012, respectively, to simulate annual maximum precipitation with four different return periods： once in ten years, twenty years, fifty years and a hundred years. The results show that there is a significant difference in the maximum precipitation with the same recurrence period in different regions at different periods. For all recurrence periods,extreme precipitation in the Han river basin were the lowest, while the maximum precipitation in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river and the Poyang lake area were higher. At the same time, for the same recurrence period, the extreme precipitation in different periods were also different. The maximum rainfall of the period from 1981 to 2012 was about 5 percent higher than the maximum rainfall during the period from 1960 to 1980.
作者
牟婷婷
林爱文
方建
MOU Ting-ting(School of resources and environmental science, wuhan university, Hubei Wuhan 430072, Chin)
出处
《国土与自然资源研究》
2018年第2期42-45,共4页
Territory & Natural Resources Study
关键词
帕累托分布
极端降水
重现期
长江中下游
Pareto distribution
Extreme precipitation
Return period
The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River
