摘要
甜菜夜蛾是严重影响蔬菜产量和品质的害虫,其发生发展与气象条件关系十分密切。为探索气象条件与甜菜夜蛾发生程度的关系,开展甜菜夜蛾发生程度气象等级预报服务,选取2009—2010年湖北省甜菜夜蛾虫情资料和对应台站的气象资料,对甜菜夜蛾发生程度等级与各项气象因子做相关分析,在此基础上,筛选出模型因子,采用多元线性回归分析方法,构建了湖北省甜菜夜蛾发生程度气象等级预报模型,并对模型验证。结果表明:历史回代检验旬检验结果达基本一致以上的为76%;独立样本预测检验旬值达基本一致以上的为63%,模型总体预报结果较好,可为湖北省开展甜菜夜蛾气象等级预报业务提供技术支撑。
Spodoptera exiguais a pest seriously affecting the yield and quality of vegetables,the occurrence and development of which are highly related with meteorological conditions.To explore the relationships between meteorological conditions and the occurrence of S.exigua,we developed the meteorological grading prediction model for the epidemics of S.exigua.Correlation analysis between the occurrence degree of S.exigua and meteorological conditions was carried out using data of S.exigua and the corresponding meteorological stations in Hubei Province from2009 to 2010.On this basis,we screened out the model factors and constructed the prediction model for the occurrence of S.exigua by adopting the multivariable linear regression method.The results of ten-day test in historical resubstitution reached a basic agreement of 76%,and the independent sample prediction test had a basic consistency of 63%.The overall prediction results were qualified,which can provide technical support for the meteorological grading prediction service for S.exigua occurrence in Hubei Province.
作者
杨文刚
孟翠丽
望勇
刘可群
司升云
陆鹏程
YANG Wengang;MENG Cuili;WANG Yong;LIU Kequn;SI Shengyun;LU Pengcheng(Huangshi Meteorological Bureau,Huangshi 435002,China;Wuhan National Agro-Meteorological Station in Hubei Province,Wuhan 430040, China;Wuhan Regional Climate Center in Hubti Provinee, Wuhan 430074,China;Institute of Vegetable,WuhanAcademy of Agricultural Sciences,Wuhan 430065,China)
出处
《植物保护》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第3期105-110,共6页
Plant Protection
基金
湖北省气象局科技发展基金重点项目(2015Z04)
关键词
甜菜夜蛾
气象等级
预报
Spodoptera exigua
meteorological grade
forecast
