摘要
基于1993-2017年月度数据研究发现:中国三大贸易条件指数(2010=100)中价格贸易条件上下波动明显,标准差为6.0;收入贸易条件长期稳步上升,近三年相对于最高点下降了15%~20%;要素贸易条件一直呈上升趋势,标准差为66.2。人民币汇率一次性大幅度变动时,中国价格贸易条件有显著变动。人民币显著升值时,价格贸易条件马上明显改善,但维持时间不长,随后又发生逆转。人民币一次性大幅度贬值导致价格贸易条件长期恶化有一定的时滞。国外发生经济或金融危机而中国宏观经济较稳定发展期间,中国价格贸易条件改善。为此,我国应积极推动人民币汇率向均衡汇率靠拢,针对性地采取限产计划,以提升国际分工地位,从根本上改善贸易条件和增加经济福利。
The fluctuation of the levels of three kinds of Terms of Trade（TOT）in China during January 1993-November 2017 presents differently.The Net Barter Terms of Trade（NBTT）fluctuated significantly and the Standard Deviation is 6.0 during this period.After the increases of the Income Terms of Trade（ITT）in 20 years,the level of ITT has declined 15%~20%comparing to the top level during the last three years.The Factor Terms of Trade（FTT）has been risen fast and the Standard Deviation is 66.2 during this period.The NBTT changed significantly as a great change of the exchange rate of CNY.The NBTT increased as soon as the revaluation of the CNY but declined after a short period.The level of NBTT declined in a long period as the sharp devaluation of CNY after a short period.The NBTT increased while the foreign countries faced with the international economic or financial crisis but China was in the period of healthful economic development.Therefore,three measures we suggest to improve the TOT and the economic welfare are as follows：first,reforming the exchange rate regime in order to keep the level of exchange rate of CNY with its equilibrium level;second,decreasing the production of some products;and lastly,raising the degree of international division of labor in China.
作者
马红霞
舒丽媛
MA Hongxia;SHU Liyuan(Economics and Management School,Wuhan University,Wuhan,Hubei 430072,Chin)
出处
《财经理论与实践》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期120-126,共7页
The Theory and Practice of Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJA790150)
关键词
贸易条件
价格贸易条件
收入贸易条件
要素贸易条件
Terms of Trade （TOT）
Net Barter Terms of Trade （NBTT）
Income Terms of Trade （ITT）
Factor Terms of Trade （FTT）
