摘要
该文利用uncomtrade数据库HS6位目数据,基于种类变动视角测度了2002-2015年中国农产品贸易条件指数。结果显示:(1)考虑种类变动后,中国农产品贸易条件平均改善2.47%,且与固定种类下的贸易条件相比,长期趋势并未呈现明显的恶化特征;(2)进一步地,进口种类变动对贸易条件的改善起了主要作用,相对贡献率达到69.30%,而出口种类变动的相对贡献则仅为30.70%。因此,考虑种类变动对贸易的影响,不仅有利于我们正确理解进口的快速增长,无需过分担忧其对农产品贸易福利的负向影响;同时,提醒我们应更多关注中国农产品出口贸易结构的升级调整,通过满足消费者不断增长的多样化需求获取农产品出口的持续稳定发展。
In this paper, we use the un comtrade HS6 data to measure the index of terms of trade of China＇s Agricultural Products from 2001 to 2015 based on the variation of species. The results showed that. （1） The terms of trade of China＇s agricultural products improved by 2. 47% on average after accounting for the change of species. Compared with the fixed terms of trade, the long-term trend did not significantly deteriorate; （2） Further, the change in the import category plays a major role in terms of trade improvement, with a relative contribution rate of 69. 30%, while the relative contribution of the change in the export category was only 30. 70%. Therefore, considering the impact of species changes on trade will not only help us to correctly understand the rapid growth of imports, without concerning too much about its negative impact on the agricultural trade welfare, but also reminds us to pay more attention to the upgrading of China＇s agricultural export trade structure, by satisfying the ever increasing diversifiable demand of consumers to obtain sustainable and stable development of agricultural exports.
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第11期75-86,共12页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"完善国家粮食安全保障体系"
国家自然科学基金项目"劳动成本与资源约束背景下中国农业生产结构变迁与农产品比较优势动态研究"的资助
"江苏省优势学科"的支持
关键词
农产品
贸易条件
种类
进出口价格指数
贸易福利
Agricultural Products
Terms of Trade
Species
Import and Export Price Index
Trade Welfare
