摘要
灰色系统理论适用于数据样本小的预测,而马尔可夫原理对于变化波动大的系统有很好的处理过程,将灰色系统理论与马尔可夫原理结合使用并运用GM(1,1)模型,建立基于灰色马尔可夫理论的建筑业碳排放量预测研究模型。用这种模型对2000年-2014年建筑业的碳排放量进行研究,在此基础上对2013年和2014年建筑业的碳排放量进行预测,并且检验其精度。结果表明,运用灰色马尔可夫理论预测的建筑业碳排放量精度可以达到95%以上,研究结论为今后的建筑业碳排放量预测提供了理论基础。
Grey system theory is applied to the small prediction of data samples,and the Markov principle is used to change the system with large fluctuations. The grey system theory was combined with the Markov principle and the GM（1,1） model was used to establish a carbon emission prediction model for the construction industry based on the grey Markov theory. This model was used to study the carbon emissions of the construction industry from 2000 to 2014. Based on this,the carbon emissions of the construction industry were predicted in 2013 and 2014,and the accuracy was tested. The results show that the accuracy of carbon emissions in the construction industry predicted by using the gray Markov theory can reach more than 95%. Therefore,this model is used to predict the carbon emissions of the construction industry in the future.
作者
江思雨
刘加俊
JIANG Siyu;LIU Jiajun(Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China)
出处
《洛阳理工学院学报（自然科学版）》
2018年第2期6-10,共5页
Journal of Luoyang Institute of Science and Technology：Natural Science Edition
