摘要
目的分析2014--2016年浙江省传染病自动预警系统监测数据，为传染病自动预警系统优化提供依据。方法收集浙江省2014--2016年传染病自动预警监测数据，进行描述性分析，并与同期“传染病报告信息管理系统”中报告病例数进行比较。结果自动预警系统共发出30种传染病37870条预警信号，响应率为100％，响应中位数时间为0．67h。其中611条信号（1．61％）被经初步核实判断为疑似事件，经过进一步现场调查确认为215起暴发，预警阳性率为0．57％。固定阈值法预警信号9175条，93．96％（8621／9175）的信号是在2h内响应；最终确认5种疾病的3868例个案，占预警信号的42．16％。时间预警模型预警信号28695条，99．12％（28443／28695）的信号是在24h内响应。时间预警模型信号数与报告病例数呈正相关变化（r=0．96，P〈O．01）；最终确认6种疾病的193起暴发。结论浙江省传染病自动预警系统整体运行良好，预警信号的响应率和及时响应率保持在较高水平，能够辅助基层疾控机构早期发现可能的传染病暴发，但预警信号的疑似比和阳性率有待提高。
Objective To analyze and evaluate the monitoring data of China Infectious Diseases Automated- alert and Response System （CIDARS） in Zhejiang Province from 2014 to 2016,and to provide the evidences for further promoting the application and improvement of this system. Methods The data which were collected from the monitoring program during 2014 to 2016 were analyzed descriptively and compared with the incidence data from national notifiable communicable disease report system in the same period. Results A total of 37 870 signals were generated on 30 kinds of infectious diseases in the system in Zhejiang province. The response rate was 100% and the median time to response was 0.67 hour. There were 611 signals （1.61%） preliminarily verified as suspected outbreaks and 215 outbreaks were finally confirmed by further field investigation ,with a positive ratio of 0.57%. In all the signals,9 175 signals were generated by the fixed-value detection method,and 93.96% （8 621/9 175） of signals were responded in 2 hours. A total of 3 868 cases of 5 kinds of diseases were finally confirmed, accounting for 42.16% of the generated signals. There were 28 695 signals generated by the temporal model method, and 99.12% （28 443/28 695） of signals were responded in 24 hours. The signal number of time warning model was positively correlated with reported case numbers （r=0.96,P〈0.01）. A total of 193 outbreaks of 6 kinds of diseases were confirmed. Conclusions CIDARS performs well in Zhejiang province which can be used to achieve automatic early alter for outbreak of infectious diseases. Signal response rate and time maintain a rather high level which can assist CDC to find potential outbreak of infectious disease in early stage. However, suspected rate and positive rate of the early warning signals should be improved.
作者
鲁琴宝
林君芬
徐校平
吴晨
吴昊澄
丁哲渊
曾蓓蓓
Lu Qinbao;Lin Junfen;Xu Xiaoping;Wu Chen;Wu Haocheng;Ding Zheyuan;Zeng Beibei(Department of Public Health Surveillance＆A dvisory,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051,China;Department of Logiztics＆Security, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou 310051, China)
出处
《国际流行病学传染病学杂志》
CAS
2018年第2期93-97,共5页
International Journal of Epidemiology and Infectious Disease
基金
浙江省医药卫生科技计划（2015ZHA003）
关键词
传染病
自动预警
监测数据
评价
Communicable diseases
Automatic alert
Monitoring data
Evaluation
