摘要
目的通过对2011年徐汇区疫情预警现状分析与探讨,评价传染病自动预警信息系统的预警方法、模式与效果,为进一步提升传染病预警信息系统运行能力提供实践依据。方法传染病自动预警信息系统采用移动百分位数法和单病例预警方法进行预警预测,利用流行病学统计方法对预警系统中的数据信息进行归纳分析和评价。结果 2011年该系统对徐汇区共发出有效预警信息212次,预警信号阳性率为0.94%。病例报告数与预警信号数比为7.10:1,呈正相关变化趋势(r=0.714,P=0.009)。结论系统具有高度敏感性,但阳性预测值较低。
OBJECTIVE To analyze the application of automatic early-warning system for communicable diseases for improving alert efficiency. METHODS With dynamic percentile and one-case early-warning method, the early-warning of communicable disease system was established. Data from the system were analyzed with epidemiologic methods. RESULTS In 2011, the system issued 212 times of alert information with a positive ratio of 0.94 percent. The disease case reports show a positive correlation with the signals. （r= 0.714, P=0.009） . CONCLUSION Positive predictive value is low, but the sensitivity is high for the eadv-waminz information system.
出处
《中国初级卫生保健》
2012年第8期29-31,共3页
Chinese Primary Health Care
关键词
传染病
预警系统
评价
infectious disease
warning system
evaluate
