摘要
中国社会转型和国家改革发展已进入高风险阶段。风险决策正成为教育改革决策的新常态。事业在"进步"中倒退,"顾此失彼、扩大差距",社会不稳定,改革试点失败,塔西陀陷阱等是当前教育改革需要防范的五类风险。对风险的无知、无畏和无能构成风险决策的"三无困境"。技术性风险源、制度性风险源和系统性风险源是决策风险的三个重要来源。"三无困境"的产生,除受决策风险源影响外,也与决策者在决策中对自身与社会的成本、收益、风险的比较分析和价值选择相关。建议从四个方面建立健全教育决策风险防控体系:从法规上完善国家和地方教育行政决策风险防控机制;培育积极的风险文化,推进风险清单管理;促进教育决策模式转型;以防控三个风险源为重点,推进教育治理体系和治理能力的现代化。
China＇s social transformation and national reform and development have entered a highrisk stage.Education reform is facing series of risks such as retrogressing ＂progress＂,widened gaps in education,social instability,failure of pilot reforms,and Tacitus trap.Risk-based decision making is becoming the new norms of educational reform decisions.The ignorance and fearlessness of risks and incompetence to deal with risks are the ＂three difficulties＂in risk-based decision making.The main sources of risks in decision making are technical risks,institutional risks,and systematic risks.In addition,the ＂three-difficulties＂is also related to decision-makers＇ judgment on the costs,benefits,and risks to the society and themselves.This paper proposes four ways to strengthen the system of risk prevention and control in educational decision-making process：（1）enacting rules and regulations of risk prevention at national and local level;（2）establishing a culture towards positive risk management;（3）promoting the transformation of educational decision-making process;and（4）promoting the modernization of the education governance system and capacity with a focus on preventing the ＂three-difficulties＂.
作者
涂端午
TU Duan-wu(National Center for Education Development Research, Beijing , 10081（5)
出处
《清华大学教育研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第2期32-37,68,共7页
Tsinghua Journal of Education
基金
国家社会科学基金教育学青年课题"国家教育决策科学民主模式研究"(CFA110123)
关键词
教育改革
教育决策
风险防控
education reform
education decision-making
risk prevention and control
