摘要
随着西部大开发、"一带一路"战略的实施及特殊的历史沿革、资源禀赋、产业承接等原因,新疆成为石化、煤化工、钢铁等高耗能产业接替区,以化石为主的能源消费不断增加,逐步形成高耗能产业为主的产业结构,区域碳锁定问题日益突出。新疆区域碳锁定形成机制以技术-制度锁定为基本途径,经报酬递增和自我强化,产生资源禀赋锁定、产业锁定、技术锁定、制度锁定和社会嵌入锁定,形成具有路径依赖的综合系统,导致新疆区域碳锁定固化。通过建立碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型,运用供需平衡法对新疆碳锁定状态进行判定和预测发现:新疆初次碳锁定现象发生在2005年,2006-2014年区域碳锁定趋势愈来愈严重。地方政府通过优化能源结构、优化产业结构、健全政绩考核体系、提升碳承载能力等路径减缓区域碳锁定趋势,逐步实现区域低碳转型。
Along with the large-scale development of the Western Region and the implementation of the＂Belt and Road Initiative＂strategy, Xinjiang has become the base-to-succeed of high energy-consumption industries including petrochemical,coal-chemical engineering and iron/steel and the energy-consumption oriented industrial structure has been gradually formed with the salient problem of regional carbon lock-in. In this paper, regional carbon locking-in of Xinjiang is discussed with the technology/system lock-in as the basic approach, and it goes via increasing return and self-reinforcing producing the resources endowment lock, industry lock, technology lock, system lock and social embedded lock, resulting in an integrated system of path dependence, thus the regional carbon lock-in of Xinjiang being consolidated. By building calculation models of bearing capacity of carbon and overloading rate of carbon and using the balance law of supply-demand, the status of carbon lock–in in Xinjiang was determined and predicted; hence it was found the first carbon lock-in phenomenon occurred in 2005, and the regional carbon lock-in became more and more serious during the year 2006 to 2014. Finally, suggestions were made for the local governments in Xinjiang with respect to optimizing the energy-source and industrial structures, improving the performance evaluation system and enhancing the carbon carrying capacity, in order to slow down the regional carbon locking trend and gradually realize the regional low-carbon transition.
作者
王志强
蒲春玲
WANG Zhiqiang;PU Chunling(School of Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi 830052, Chin)
出处
《环境科学与技术》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第3期168-172,185,共6页
Environmental Science & Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71663052)
关键词
碳排放
区域碳锁定
碳锁定时间
碳锁定趋势
carbon emission
regional carbon lock-in
carbon lock-in time
carbon lock-in trend
