摘要
通过建立包括陆地、湿地和海洋的碳承载力、碳超载率的计算模型,采用供需平衡法建立了区域碳锁定时间和趋势的判定模型。以有着"植物王国"和"基因宝库"之称以及水电资源相对丰富的云南省为例,对该省的碳锁定时间、趋势进行了实证研究。实证分析结果显示,云南省自2002年后开始出现了碳锁定现象且趋势越来越严重,若不进行强有力的外界干扰,这种趋势将一直延续下去。结合即使"十一·五"低碳目标的完成也没能减轻云南省碳锁定加剧的趋势,提出把减轻碳超载、控制能源消费总量、提升碳承载力纳入低碳经济发展的目标管理。
In this paper, the criteria models on carbon lock-in time and trend are proposed based on the carbon loading capacity model and the rate of carbon overload of land, marsh swamp everglade and ocean with the balance law of supply and demand. The empirical study has been done about Yunnan Province which is known as “The Kingdom of Vegetable” and “The Treasure Trove of Genes” and for its rich hydropower re-sources. The carbon lock-in phenomenon has appeared in Yunnan Province ever since 2002 and is more and more serious. Without interference, this trend would continue. During the National“Eleventh Five-year Plan”period, the accomplishment of“The Low Carbon Target” Yunnan provincial government has not yet reduced the carbon lock-in trend. The paper thereby suggests that controlling the carbon overload quality trend, energy consumption and improving the carbon loading capacity should be included in the target management of low-carbon economic development.
出处
《昆明理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
2014年第3期73-79,共7页
Journal of Kunming University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
云南省哲学社会科学基金项目"基于生态文明的云南省碳补偿机制研究"(YB2013012)
云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目"铜冶炼企业循环经济评价指标体系研究"(2012Y557)
关键词
碳锁定时间
碳锁定趋势
碳承载力
碳超载量
碳超载率
判定模型
carbon lock-in time
carbon lock-in trend
carbon loading capacity
carbon overload qual-ity
rate of carbon overload
criteria model
