摘要
人口红利消失以后,全要素生产率是否可以成为推动中国经济继续前行、顺利实现中国两个百年目标的重大引擎呢?研究发现,全要素生产率变动轨迹存在明显的人口世代更迭烙印。未来随着人口世代的更迭,特别是95后和00后出生低谷世代依次进入劳动市场期间,全要素增长率呈现阶梯型下降趋势,且全要素生产率于2040年左右开始下降,要素配置效率出现恶化。面对未来日趋老化的劳动人口,全要素生产率引擎也不再长期有效,此时唯有依靠制度红利。在政策生育力量精准释放下,当前的放松生育管控政策改善了未来的要素配置效率,扭转了未来全要素增长率阶梯型下降的趋势性特征,使得未来全要素生产率呈现提高的趋势。由此得出的一个启示是,不能忽视人口世代更迭引致的劳动人口年龄结构变化对全要素生产率的负面影响。为改善未来的要素配置效率,储备技术红利,当前应放松生育管控和尽快出台激励生育的配套政策。
With the diminishing of demographic dividend, is it possible that total factor produc- tivity（TFP） can become a strong engine to promote China＇s economy and help to achieve China＇s Two Century Goals？ Research shows that there is a clear mark of population generation transition on the change of total factor productivity in history. Along with the population generation change, especially with the low birth rates generations including post - 1995 and post -2000 generations entering into the labor market, TFP growth rate shows a multistep declining trend, and in 2040, TFP will be- gin to decline and the allocation efficiency of factors will be deteriorated. Facing the aging of the la- bor force in the future, the TFP engine is no longer valid for a long time, then we can rely only on institutional dividends. The policy of relaxing fertility control at present improves the efficiency of the allocation of factors, changing the future declining trend of the TFP and an increasing trend of TFP can be found. This gives us the enlightenment that the negative impact of the structural change of labor force age caused by population generation transition on TFP cannot be neglected. To improve the factor allocation efficiency and technology dividend in the future, fertility control policy should be relaxed and more policies on encouraging child birth should be implemented.
作者
杨华磊
张冰鑫
YANG Hua - lei;ZHANG Bing - xin(School of Public Administration, Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, Wuhan 430073, Chin)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第4期20-31,共12页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
关键词
人口世代更迭
全要素生产率
婴儿潮
Population Generation Transition
Total Factor Productivity
Baby Boom
