摘要
概率理论从诞生到现在都是在"概率是精确的"这一前提下得到发展的,也产生了很多理论成果,但是目前精确概率理论在很多问题上遇到了难以克服的困难,比如群体信念、埃尔斯伯格决策、中止判断等,而非精确概率不认可精确概率理论的前提,它认为概率不一定都是精确的,进而比较完美地解决了精确概率理论难以克服的困难。
Probability theory always develops on the claim that probability is precise and has always been precise since its birth as a discipline. It has gained many theoretical achievements, but now is encountering insurmountable difficulties on many issues, such as Group belief, Ellsberg decisions, and suspension of judgement. In contrast, Imprecise Probability Theory does not accept the premise of Precise Probability and argues that not all probabilities are precise, thus perfectly overcoming the difficulties encountered by the precise probability theory.
作者
潘文全
PAN Wenquan(College of Philosophy, Nankai University, Tianjin, 30035)
出处
《自然辩证法通讯》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期38-45,共8页
Journal of Dialectics of Nature
基金
国家社科基金重大项目"现代归纳逻辑的新发展
理论前沿与与应用研究"(项目编号:15ZDB018)
国家社科青年项目"集合论及其在弗雷格算术中的应用研究"(项目编号:16CZX050)
关键词
非精确概率理论
精确概率理论
博弈
决策
Imprecise probability theory
Probability theory
Game
Decision-making
