摘要
基于联合国商品贸易统计数据库的HS1992-6分位编码的微观贸易数据并结合生存分析方法,文章系统考察了1993~2015年中国与"一带一路"沿线国家出口贸易联系的生存状况。研究发现:(1)整体而言,中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的持续期偏短,其平均值和中位数仅分别为6.336年、4年,尚不足本文观测期的30%、20%;中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的生存率存在较为明显的门槛效应,其在贸易联系建立的初期较为低下,但一旦跨越"门槛值"则趋于稳定;(2)在区分行业、要素禀赋、地理位置以及贸易合作模式等条件下,中国与沿线地区的出口贸易联系的生存状况呈现出较为明显的异质性;(3)基于离散时间模型文章进一步检验了引力类型控制变量以及国家、产品层面的特征变量对中国与沿线国家出口贸易联系的影响,发现与沿线国家签署区域贸易协议和人民币互换协议、提升沿线国家的贸易自由化程度以及降低沿线国家的国别风险等均有助于改善中国与该地区出口贸易联系的生存状况。
Based on the micro trade data at the HS1992 6-digit level from UN Comtrade Database and the survival analysis, this paper systematically explores the survival condition of China＇s export relationship with the countries along B＆R from 1993 to 2015. The results show that： （1） in general, the duration of China＇s export relationship with the countries along B＆R is relatively short. The average and the median duration are only 6.33 years and 4 years respectively, which are less than 30% and 20% of the sample time span respectively. There exists a threshold effect on the duration rate of China＇ s export relationship with the countries along B＆R and the survival rate of export relationship is relatively low in the early establishment of trade relationship, but it will survive for a longer time once the threshold value is crossed; （2） under the conditions of distinguishing industries, factor endowment, geographical location and trade cooperation mode, obvious heterogeneity of the survival condition of China＇s export relationship with the countries along B＆R appears; （3） based on the discrete-time model, this paper further examines the gravity-type, country-level and product- level characteristics as determinants for China＇s export relationship with the countries along B＆R. We find that the signing of RTA and the RMB exchange agreement with the countries along B＆R, the improvement of trade liberalization and the reduction of national risk in the B＆R countries help to improve the survival condition of China＇s export relationship with the countries along B＆R.
作者
刘洪铎
陈晓珊
LIU Hong-duo, CHEN Xiao-shan
出处
《国际经贸探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期29-45,共17页
International Economics and Trade Research
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"‘一带一路’战略与中国参与全球经济治理问题研究"(15ZDA018)
