摘要
山东省非金融企业杠杆率已超国际认定警戒线,并且由于统计口径不完备,山东省实际杠杆率水平高于当前计算结果,已无加杠杆空间。从当前可计算的杠杆率分结构看,山东省非金融企业杠杆率高企主要集中在第二产业、基建行业及国有企业。通过对山东省内2009年以来17地市的杠杆率与不良贷款率进行实证研究发现,不良贷款率与杠杆率变动之间存在稳定的反向关系,杠杆的加速变动会加大金融风险的暴露。建议应在稳步去杠杆的基础上推进金融供给侧改革,使非金融企业与区域金融体系实现平稳健康发展。
As one of the main tasks of supply-side reform, ＇deleveraging＇ has become the focus of the whole soci- ety attention. The leverage ratio of non-financial companies in Shandong province has exceeded internationally warning line. Due to the incomplete statistics caliber, the actual level of leverage ratio is much higher than the current calcula- tion results in Shandong, and there is no plus leverage space in Shandong Province. Judging from the leverage ratio structure of Shandong Province, the high leverage ratio is mainly concentrated in the secondary industry, the infra- structure industry and the state-owned enterprises. Through empirical research on the leverage ratio and non-performing loan rate of 17 cities in Shandong Province since 2009, it is found that there is a stable inverse relationship between the non-performing rate and the change of leverage ratio, which means the accelerated change of leverage ratio will in- crease the exposure of financial risks. It is suggested that the financial supply-side reform should be promoted on the ba- sis of steady de-leveraging ratio, so that non-financial enterprises and regional financial system can achieve a steady and healthy development.
出处
《金融发展研究》
北大核心
2018年第2期40-46,共7页
Journal Of Financial Development Research
基金
山东省社会科学规划研究项目"供给侧改革与杠杆调整:山东例证"(16BJRJ05)
关键词
非金融企业
杠杆率
金融风险
non-financial enterprise, leverage ratio, financial risk
