摘要
全球能源生产和消费结构正以不可逆的趋势加速向多元化、清洁化、低碳化转型,石油在一次能源消费中所占份额将被天然气和可再生能源＂侵蚀＂。全球石油需求峰值将于2030~2040年间到来已成为业内主流声音。本轮低油价周期始于2014年下半年的断崖式下跌,2016年触底反弹。2017年,受到传统产油国减产协议执行情况和美国页岩油增产潜力两股相反力量＂拉锯＂的影响,上半年震荡走低后,下半年布伦特油价站稳60美元/bbl,全年形成小＂V＂走势。未来5年间国际油价将延续当前上升通道,年均价徘徊在60~75美元/bbl,其后进入中高位震荡期,甚至不排除进入新下跌周期的可能。油气企业既要认识到石油消费峰值的必然性,又要对石油在短期内的不可替代性有清晰客观的认识,石油行业在发展中国家仍有可观的发展空间,燃油车退市也尚需时日,石油作为化工原料的地位并不亚于作为能源。石油企业应主动适应能源行业新常态,大力推进传统油气开发领域的技术进步和体制创新,在提高生产运营能效、提供清洁高效产品、发展天然气业务等方面加速转型,并加快新能源产业布局。
The global energy production and consumption structure is irreversibly accelerating its transformation to diversification,cleanliness and low carbonization.The share of oil in primary energy consumption will be gradually taken by natural gas and renewable energy.The idea that global oil demand will peak between 2030 to 2040 has become the voice of the industry.The current low oil price cycle started from the slump in the second half of 2014,and then the oil prices bottomed out in 2016.In the first half of 2017,the oil prices fell in choppy trading due to the seesaw battle between the oil production decrease of traditional oil producing countries and the shale oil production increase potential of the U.S.,and the Brent stabilized above $60 a barrel in the second half of the year,showing a small ＂V＂ trend.In the next five years,international oil prices will continue to rise,hovering between $60 and $75 a barrel,and then linger at mid to high levels while the possibility of coming down may not be ruled out.Oil and gas enterprises should not only real-ize the inevitability of the peak oil demand,but also have a clear and objective understanding of the irreplaceability of oil in the short term.There is still considerable room for the development of oil industry in developing countries,and the phase-out of fuel vehicles will take time,so oil is no less important as chemical raw material than as energy.Oil enterprises should actively adapt to the new normal of energy industry,vigorously promote the technological progress and system innovation in traditional oil and gas development field,accelerate the transformation in terms of improving production efficiency,providing clean and efficient energy products and developing natural gas business,and speed up the layout of new energy industry.
出处
《中外能源》
CAS
2018年第2期1-7,共7页
Sino-Global Energy
关键词
低油价
石油需求峰值
不可替代性
可再生能源
天然气
加速转型
low oil price
peak oil demand
irreplaceability
renewable energy
natural gas
accelerated transformation
