摘要
对经济增长进行预期管理是现代国家的通行做法,但我国的经济增长预期目标形成过程却存在着一定的问题。收集2004—2014年我国277个地级市的"政府工作报告"发现,经济增长预期目标与实际增长率之间存在着显著的系统性偏差。那么,这种系统性偏差是如何形成的?实证分析发现:省级偏差与市级偏差存在显著的正相关关系;市委书记的更替与偏差之间存在显著的负相关关系;经济发展水平与偏差之间存在显著的负相关关系;第二产业与第三产业占生产总值的比例对偏差有显著影响;并且这些因素在我国东、中、西部有着不同的表现。因此,要进一步完善经济增长预期目标形成机制,实现对经济增长的有效指导。
The expected management of economic growth is a common practice in modern countries,but there are some problems in the process of the formation of the expected goal of economic growth in China. We collected the government work reports of 277 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2014,and found that there was a significant systematic bias between the expected economic growth target and the actual growth rate.How does this systemic bias come into being? The empirical analysis shows that the municipal level deviation is significant positively associated with the provincial-level deviation and is negatively associated with the turnover of the secretary of municipal Party committee. And also,there is a significant negative correlation between economic development level and the deviation. In addition,the proportion of second and third industry accounted for total production value has a significant influence on the deviation. These factors have some different manifestations in the east,middle and west of China. Therefore,we should further improve the formation mechanism of the expected economic growth target to realize its effective guidance to economic growth.
出处
《学习与探索》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第3期98-107,共10页
Study & Exploration
关键词
经济增长预期目标
系统性偏差
影响因素
Expected Economic Growth Target
Systematical Deviation
Influential Factors
