摘要
针对战时航母编队导弹消耗预测存在可使用的导弹消耗样本数据少、导弹消耗预测准确度低等问题,在对总体作战任务进行分解的基础上,利用案例推理法生成了导弹消耗预测所需的样本数据,建立了基于熵判别法的导弹消耗预测模型,并以对空防御作战中的导弹消耗预测为例,分别用熵判别法、回归预测法、灰色预测法和数理统计法进行实例分析。结果表明:案例推理生成的样本数据可用,熵判别法相对误差最小,预测准确度高。该方法在某种程度上解决了导弹消耗样本数据缺失的问题,为战时航母编队导弹消耗预测提供一种新思路和新方法。
Aiming at the problem that the number of missile consumption sample data is small and the accuracy of missile consumption prediction is low. On the basis of the overall combat task decomposition,the case-based reasoning method is used to generate sample data of missile consumption. The prediction model of missile consumption based on entropy discrimination method is established. An example is analyzed by using the method of entropy discrimination method,gray prediction method and mathematical statistics method. The results show that the sample data generated by case-based reasoning can be used,the relative error of entropy discrimination method is smaller and the prediction accuracy is higher. Missing of missile consumption sample data is solved by this method. This method provides one new idea and new method for wartime carrier battle groups missile consumption prediction.
出处
《兵器装备工程学报》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第2期90-94,118,共6页
Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering
关键词
航母编队
导弹消耗预测
任务分解
案例推理
熵判别法
carrier battle groups
missile consumption prediction
task decomposition
case-basedreasoning（CBR）
entropy discrimination method
