摘要
文章以1996-2015年黑龙江省数据为样本,用金融包容指数测度其金融包容水平,构建VAR模型分析黑龙江省金融包容对农民增收的影响,通过格兰杰因果检验验证二者是否存在因果关系,运用协整检验说明二者的长期、短期关系,再利用脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解探讨影响趋势及影响程度。同时,构建回归方程探讨金融包容各维度指数对农民增收的贡献度。研究结果表明:金融包容水平是农民增收的格兰杰原因,无论短期、长期,金融包容对农民增收均有较显著正向作用,且影响的冲击力较大,影响趋势为"先急后缓,渐进平稳"。在影响过程中,各维度指数的贡献度为:可接触性维度>渗透性维度>使用效用性维度。因此,应建设扶贫式金融体系、提高金融包容水平,来促进农民增收,实现精准扶贫。
Taking the data of Heilongjiang province from 1996 to 2015 as a sample, this paper uses the financial inclusion index to measure financial inclusion level, and constructs the VAR model to analyze impact of financial inclusion on increasing farmers＇ income. Granger causality test was used to test whether there was causality between them, and the co-integration test was used to explain the long term and short term relationship between them. Then the impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition were used to explore the trend and degree of influence. At the same time, the regression equation was constructed to explore the contribution degree of different index. The results show that： Financial inclusion is the granger causality for increasing farmers＇ income. No matter short-term or long-term, financial inclusion plays a more significant positive role in increasing farmers＇ income, and the impact is great. The influence tendency is fast at first, then slow and gradually steady. In this process, the contribution of Availability Index ranks first, followed by Accessibility Index and Usage Index. Therefore, we should build a poverty alleviation financial system and raise the level of financial inclusion, so as to increase farmers＇ income and realize the precise poverty alleviation.
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期45-59,共15页
Public Finance Research
基金
2015年黑龙江省软科学项目"黑龙江省农村金融服务水平测度及影响因素分析"(GC16D113)
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究一般项目"金融包容促进精准扶贫与脱贫长效机制与对策研究"(17JYB082)
关键词
金融包容
农民增收
VAR模型
Financial Inclusion
Increasing Farmers＇ Income
VAR Model
