摘要
在中国居民的肉类生产消费结构中,近10多年猪肉的比重均在60%以上,居核心地位。同时,生猪价格又呈现显著的时序性变化。生猪价格的剧烈波动,不仅影响着生猪产业链各环节企业的利益和消费者的福利,而且影响着整个中国生猪产业的发展。生猪价格预警是缓解生猪价格波动影响、稳定生猪市场供需的重要手段,对近期生猪价格预警研究进行了概述,并对现有生猪价格预警模型进行了总结和评述。最后,提供了应对未来生猪价格波动的思路与途径。
In the meat production and consumption structure of Chinese residents, pork took the share of more than 60 percent over the last decade, which occupied the main position. At the same time, the pig price showed significant timing changes. The drastic fluctuations in pig price have an impact on the interests of enterprises in all links of the pig industry chain, the welfare of consumers and the development of China＇s pig industry. As an important means of alleviating the fluctuation of pig price and stabilizing the supply and demand in the pig market, early-warning has been conducted by a large number of domestic scholars. In this paper, we reviewed the research on domestic pig price early-warning in recent years, and summarized and commented the existing models. Finally, some ideas and ways were put forward to deal with the price fluctuation of pig in the future.
出处
《农业展望》
2018年第1期12-18,25,共8页
Agricultural Outlook
关键词
生猪价格
预警指标
预警模型
展望
pig price
early-warning index
early-warning model
outlook
