摘要
工程投标决策是一种不确定性条件下的决策问题,对于企业的经营发展至关重要。针对水利工程施工企业面对多项目进行投标决策的问题,考虑企业决策者的心理行为特征,提出一种基于前景理论的投标决策方法。首先通过计算拟投标项目的决策指标损益价值和概率权重,确定其决策指标期望前景值;然后计算各项目的投标成本价值,在此基础上确定各项目的综合前景值并对其排序,为企业的投标决策提供依据;最后通过算例验证了该方法的可行性。
Project bidding decision-making which is crucial to the enterprises' development is an uncertain decision-making issue. For the multi-water projects bidding decision-making issue,considering the psychological and behavioral characteristics of decision-makers,this paper proposed bidding decision-making method based on prospect theory. First,by calculating the decision index'profit & loss value and probability weight,the expect prospect value of decision index were determined. Then,by calculating the bidding-cost value,the comprehensive prospect values and the rank of the projects were determined based on the above,providing the basis for the bidding decision. Finally,a numerical example was used to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.
出处
《人民黄河》
CAS
北大核心
2018年第2期117-120,125,共5页
Yellow River
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51709116)
2016年度河南省软科学研究计划项目
华北水利水电大学博士研究生创新基金项目(2014120108)
关键词
前景理论
投标决策
决策指标
概率权重
综合前景值
水利工程
prospect theory
bidding decision
decision-making index
probability weight
comprehensive prospect values
water project
