摘要
【目的】科学评价气候变化对江西省水稻气候生产潜力的影响对保障粮食稳产增产具有重要意义。【方法】本文基于江西省85个气象站54年的气象数据、晚稻生育期资料,采用逐步订正法、线性趋势分析法、Manner-Kendall检验法等分析了江西省双季晚稻光合生产潜力、光温生产潜力和气候生产潜力的时空分布特征,并结合现实生产力数据分析了气候变化背景下江西省双季晚稻的增产潜力。【结果】1961-2014年双季晚稻光合生产潜力的空间分布呈东部高、西部低,光温生产潜力呈东南部高、西北部低,气候生产潜力呈北部低、南部高特征。近55年双季晚稻的光合生产潜力和光温生产潜力呈下降趋势,下降速率分别为534和465 kg·hm^(-2)(10a)^(-1),气候生产潜力呈上升趋势,上升速率为189.7 kg·hm^(-2)(10a)^(-1)。对江西省晚稻影响较大的气象因子是降水,其次是温度,但降水的影响在逐年减少。【结论】双季晚稻存在着增产潜力,但增产潜力呈下降趋势,增产潜力高值区集中在南部地区、低值区集中在中北部地区。未来可以通过增加农业科技投入,合理安排农业种植结构,提高气候资源的利用率,实现晚稻可持续增产。
【Objective】It is very significant to ensure stable increase in grain production that the scientifical evaluation of the effect of climate change on rice in Jiangxi province. 【Method】In this paper,the characteristics of spatial-temporal variation of late rice photosynthetic potential productivity,light-temperature potential productivity,climatic potential productivity with the successive correction analysis,linear trend analysis and Manner-Kendall method were analyzed based on the meteorological data of 85 weather stations in 55 year and the growth period data in agricultural meteorological site,and then the late rice potentials for increasing production under the climate change combining the realistic productivity data were analyzed. 【Result】The spatial distribution of the photosynthetic productive potential in 1961-2014 was high in the east and low in the west in Jiangxi province,the light-temperature potential productivity distribution was high in the southeast and low in the northwest,and climatic potential productivity distribution was high in the north and low in the south. The late rice photosynthetic potential productivity and light-temperature potential productivity in nearly fifty-five years indicated a trend of decline,and the descent rates were 534 and 465 kg · hm^(-2)( 10 a)^(-1),respectively,however climatic potential productivity was rising with the rate of 189. 7 kg · hm^(-2)( 10 a)^(-1). The meteorological factor which affected on the late rice mostly was precipitation,and the second was temperature,but the effect of precipitation was reducing year by year. 【Conclusion】The late rice existed the potential for increasing production,which showed a downward trend,the high value of the increasing production potentials was in the south,and the low was concentrated in the north-central region.There would be urgently needed to develop science and technology and arrange reasonable agricultural planting structure in order to increase the utilization of climate resources and improve the act
出处
《西南农业学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期184-191,共8页
Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化背景下水稻种植结构变化研究"(CCSF201513)
关键词
晚稻
气候生产力
增产潜力
气候变化
Late rice
Climate change
Climatic productivity
Potential for increasing production
