摘要
验证喀斯特地区山地城镇化发展和水资源载荷(用水量)之间的相关性,引用STRIPAT模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线,定量分析水资源载荷Ii与社会经济因素中的人口Pi、城镇化水平Ui、富裕度Ai、技术Ti之间的关系,并通过岭回归模型拟合得到Ii、Pi、Ui、Ai4个变量的系数,进一步得到公式(4):ln Ii=4.069 8-0.200 8 ln Pi+0.316 2 ln Ui-0.041 9ln Ai+0.002 1(ln Ai)2-0.014 0 ln Ti+0.126 9。研究结果:(1)根据公式(4)得到人口Pi,城镇化水平Ui,富裕度Ai和技术Ti这4个自变量每发生1%的变化,将引起水资源载荷Ii发生-0.200 8%、0.316 2%、-(0.041 9%-0.004 2%In A)%、-0.200 8%、和-0.014 0%的变化;(2)城镇化水平的二次项系数为正值,表明不存在环境库茨兹涅曲线;比较经济增长与技术进步对水资源载荷(用水量)的影响;(3)根据上述研究结果设置6种城市发展方案,经过计算后发现在方案5中,如果GDP处于高速增长趋势,常住人口保持中速增长,严格控制城市化进程,及提高节水能效,则2020年和2025年毕节市水资源消费总量分别是781 036.93万m3,771 746.4万m3,这时的水资源载荷较小。研究结论:毕节市的水环境载荷和人口以及城镇化水平高度相关。
To verify the correlation between urbanization and the consumption of water resources,this paper quotes STRIPAT model and the kuznets curve to analyze the water resource load quantitatively and its relationship between social and economic factors,such as population（Pi）,urbanization（Ui）,GDP（Ai） and technology（Ti）.Through ridge regression model,the coefficient of four variables（Pi,Ui,Ai,Ti）are available. From the research,three results are available. If the population（Pi）,urbanization level（Ui）,GDP（Ai） and technology（Ti）,each of the four independent variables changes by 1%,it will cause the water resource load to change by-0.200 8%,0.316 2%,-（0.041 9%-0.004 2% ln Ai）,0.200 8%,or 0.014 0%. the urbanization coefficient of quadric is positive,showing that kuznets curve does not exist. It compares the positive and negative effects of the economic growth and technological progress on the environment load. Based on the above research,the paper reaches the conclusion that Scheme 5 in the six schemes is the most suitable developing pattern for a city. In Scheme 5,if GDP is in the rapid growth trend,the population keep the medium growing speedthe bijie city water consumption is 781 036.93×104 m3 and 771 746.4×104 m3 respectively. Water environmental load is the lowest at this time.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2018年第1期40-45,共6页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
"十三五"国家重点研发计划课题:喀斯特高原峡谷石漠化综合治理与生态产业规模经营技术示范(2016YFC0502603)
