摘要
本文选取2011年9月~2017年4月的月度数据,利用非线性的MS-VAR模型,分析了三区制模型下我国鸡肉价格波动的影响因素。结果表明:玉米价格和肉雏鸡价格的上涨都会引起鸡肉价格上涨,且在鸡肉价格低迷时期影响更为显著。猪肉价格和鸡肉价格呈正相关,且鸡肉价格低迷和平稳时期猪肉价格对鸡肉价格的影响更为显著。居民收入增加,鸡肉价格降低。另外当流感疫情暴发时,鸡肉价格下跌严重。最后基于以上分析,文章提出了稳定玉米价格、建立合理防疫制度等建议。
This paper analyzed the influence factors under a three-region non-linear MS-VAR model by using the monthly data from 2011.9 to 2017.4. The results indicated that corn price and meat chick price were positive relative to chicken price, especially in the downturn period of chicken price. Pork price also impacted on chicken price positively and even stronger during the downturn and smooth period of chicken price. Increased household income and reduced chicken prices. The break out of avian influenza caused a serious drop of chicken price. Based on the analysis above, some policy recommends were raised in this paper.
作者
卢彦丞
许畔
LU Yancheng;XU Pan(College of Economics and Management, Taiyuan University of Technology, Jinzhong, Shanxi 03060)
出处
《中国家禽》
北大核心
2018年第1期36-41,共6页
China Poultry
基金
山西省高等学校创新人才支持计划(优秀青年学术带头人)(晋教科函[2016]7号)
