摘要
研究目标:农村金融发展、资本存量提升对农村经济增长的影响。研究方法:采用永续盘存法测算农村资本存量,以1980~2014年小样本数据构建VEC模型,再进一步用Bootstrap-Chow检验来研究制度变量的影响。研究发现:农户储蓄存款、资本存量能显著促进农村经济的增长,但提高农村金融机构存贷比对经济贡献不大;农村资本存量发挥正效应要经历较长时滞;农村金融促进经济增长的力度受制于国家宏观政策。研究创新:从技术层面对现有文献的金融指标进行精练,重新估测农村资本存量,特别注重小样本约束下的VEC建模技术,并在Chow检验时采用Bootstrap仿真方法来确定临界值。研究价值:从技术上深化了VEC模型适用性探讨,增强了有关农村金融实证结论的有效性。
Research Objectives： This paper explores the influences on the rural economic growth from the development rural finance and the promotion capital stock. Research Methods： In this paper, the author used the perpetual inventory method to measure the rural capital stock, and then used small sample data of 1980 to 2014 to construct the VECM. Finally, the paper employed the Bootstrap-Chow test to study the effect of system variables. Research Findings： The rural household savings and capital stock can significantly promote the growth of rural economy, but the loan-to-deposit ratio can not do it. The rural capital play a positive effect with long lags, and the magnitude of the rural finance converting into rural GDP is highly affected by the national policy. Research Innovations： The paper refines the indices in the existing literature and makes a revaluation used the special technology to make VECM of the rural capital stock. And then, the paper for the small sample data. The model were strictly controlled the number of variable and lag, and used the Bootstrap-Chow test based on the Simulation method. Research Value： The paper deepens the applicability of VECM by the discussion about the technology. Therefore, it can enhance the effectiveness of the empirical conclusions about rural finance.
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第2期64-81,共18页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"罗尔斯正义原则视角下我国农村金融体系独立性重构研究"(14YJAZH075)
国家社科基金项目"农民合作社社会资本的多维减贫效应及政策研究"(16BGL125)资助
