摘要
笔者在理论上将交易者异质性的假定引入汇率波动区间与货币政策独立性之间关系的研究中,以微观交易者交易行为视角寻找开放经济条件下的"三元悖论"之解,为宏观经济问题建立微观基础,并对其无法为经验证据有力支持的现象进行解释。研究发现,在考虑了交易者异质性行为之后,货币政策独立性与汇率波动区间之间的关系在某些区域不能确定,但在某些区域呈"反向关系",且汇率波动区间和货币政策独立性之间不存在显著的绝对线性关系,"三元悖论"可解。值得我国政策制定者关注的是,当前人民币汇率波动区间处于"三元悖论"成立的区域,汇率波动区间未达最优,央行应进一步提高人民币汇率制度弹性,扩大人民币汇率波动区间,实现货币政策独立的既定目标。
By planning trader heterogeneity into the research of exchange rate fluctuations and monetary policy independence relationship, this paper focuses on solution of ＂The Impossible Trinity＂ under open econ- omy. Study found that, after considering the heterogeneity of dealers behavior, the relationship between the independence of monetary policy and the exchange rate fluctuation in some areas cannot be determined, but a ＂reverse＂ in some regions, there is no significant linear relationship between the absolute and the range of ex- change rate fluctuations and monetary policy independence, the ＂The Impossible Trinity＂ can be solved What is worth attention of policymakers is that the current RMB exchange rate fluctuation range in the estab- lishment of ＂The Impossible Trinity＂ area, there is a conflict with the independence of monetary policy, the RMB exchange rate volatility has not reached the optimal interval, the central bank should further improve the RMB exchange rate elasticity, expand the range of RMB exchange rate fluctuations, achieve the goals of monetary policy independent.
出处
《中央财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2018年第1期110-120,共11页
Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“交易者异质性、利率非理性波动与央行利率走廊机制建设”(项目编号：71703165)
关键词
交易者异质性
汇率波动区间
货币政策
三元悖论
Heterogeneous trader Optimal fluctuation range of exchange rate Monetary policy The impossible trinity
