摘要
中国正面临越来越大的"三元悖论"困扰,即在维持有限的汇率制度弹性以及货币政策自主性的同时,持续面临着大规模的国际资本流入。实证研究发现,在面临大规模的外汇资本积累后,央行的外汇冲销水平在2006年第3季度后下降了,但总体上看,中国货币供应还存在一定的自主性。由于外汇冲销存在一定成本,央行应提高成本较低的回购操作比重,降低成本较高的央行票据操作比重。考虑到"十二五"规划已经制定了扩大内需战略,来自经常项目盈余的外汇流入会持续下降,中国对外国直接投资进行了有针对性地控制和引导,限制热钱流入应该是中国今后应对外汇资本流入的重点。而只有人民币成为国际信贷货币,才能从根本上消除外汇积累的货币效应以及货币错配风险。
China has been faced with an increasing puzzlement of trilemma,i.e.how to deal with growing large-scale foreign capital inflows while maintaining the limited exchange rate flexibility and the autonomy of monetary policies.This empirical study shows that the level of foreign exchange write-offs of the central bank has dropped since the third quarter of 2006 when confronted with the large-scale accumulation of foreign capital,but generally speaking,China still has certain autonomy of monetary supply.As it costs to offset the foreign exchange,the central bank should raise the proportion of the low cost repurchasing operation and reduce the proportion of high cost central bank bills operation.Considering the fact that the＂Twelfth Five-Year＂plan has developed strategies to expand domestic demand,the foreign exchange inflows from the current account surplus will continue to decline,since China has taken action to control and guide FDI,to limit the hot money inflows should be the focus of future reaction on foreign capital inflows.Only when RMB became international credit money,can currency effects and currency mismatch of foreign reserve accumulation be fundamentally eliminated.
出处
《当代财经》
CSSCI
北大核心
2011年第7期50-60,共11页
Contemporary Finance and Economics
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(10YJC790088)
关键词
三元悖论
资本流动
货币政策自主性
货币错配
trilemma
capital flows
autonomy of monetary policy
currency mismatch
