摘要
架空线路传统的静态热定值采用固化的、苛刻的气象参数组合计算一成不变的线路最大热载流量,计算结果往往偏于保守。为此,采用气象数据驱动的统计分析方法,将全年恒定载流量转换为季节或月份载流量,缩短热定值的时间尺度。通过运行环境下实际气象数据的统计分析,实现气象数据驱动的架空线路载流的动态定值。基于CIGRE标准热平衡方程,采用控制变量法识别影响线路热定值结果的关键气象参数;进而对关键气象参数的历史数据进行统计分析,确定不同置信水平、不同时间尺度（按月、按季度和按年）气象数据子集内的气象参数阈值,通过各参数阈值计算相应时间尺度下的热定值;并利用当前运行年度的实际气象数据对各时间尺度定值结果进行运行风险评估。结果表明,根据电网允许的运行风险可方便地确定合适的气象参数置信水平和相应的热载流定值,基于气象数据驱动的架空线路热定值有效地挖掘了线路的热载流能力。
Traditional static thermal rating of overhead transmission line adopts combination of solidified and harsh meteorological parameters to calculate unalterable maximum thermal loadability and the calculation result is often conservative. Therefore, in this paper, a method of statistical analysis driven by meteorological data is used to convert constant annual loadability to seasonal or monthly loadability, and to shorten time scale of thermal rating. Based on CIGRE standard line thermal equilibrium equation, key meteorological parameters are determined with control variate method. Historical data of key meteorological parameters are analyzed statistically to determine thresholds for meteorological parameters and corresponding line thermal rating in a subset of meteorological data at different confidence levels and different time scales（monthly, quarterly, and yearly）. Real annual meteorological data are used to analyze operational risk of thermal ratings. Results show that appropriate time scale, reasonable meteorological parameter confidence level and corresponding thermal rating can be easily determined according to allowed operational risk of power grids. Thermal rating of overhead transmission line driven by meteorological data improves loadability of the line.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2018年第1期315-321,共7页
Power System Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51407111,51407106,51607107,51641702)
山东省科技发展计划项目(ZR2015ZX045)~~
关键词
架空线路
气象数值
热定值
运行风险
时间尺度
overhead line
meteorological parameter
thermal rating
operation risk
time scale
