摘要
提出了一种计及峰谷分时的配电线路同期月线损预测方法。该方法首先采用X12-ARIMA方法对台区和高压用户的月尖峰平谷售电量分别进行预测;然后采用非线性最小二乘法建立台区历史月售电量与历史月线损的关联模型对台区线损进行预测,进而得到台区关口供电量;最后根据高压用户月售电量预测结果和台区关口供电量通过前推回代方法得到主线路线损,将台区线损与主线路线损相加得到配电线路同期月线损预测值,并通过实际算例验证了方法的正确性和有效性。
This paper presents a method for furecasting the corresponding period of monthly line loss in a distribution net- work. The X12-ARIMA method is applied to forecast the monthly electricity sales of high voltage users and transformer areas during difterent times of use, and the nonlinear least square method is used for establishing the correlation model of historical electricity sales and line loss in transformer areas in nrder to forecast the future line loss and the delivery. Finally, the for-ward-back substitution method is applied for calculating the main line loss based on the forecasting data, and the corresponding period of monthly line loss is obtained by adding transformer area line loss to the main line loss. A prae, tieal case is used to prove the correctness and effectiveness of this method.
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
北大核心
2017年第10期67-73,共7页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
中国博士后科学基金项目(2014M562410)~~
