摘要
东亚高收入经济体在进入中上等收入阶段后,制造业实际占比和全要素生产率都保持长期增长。这些典型事实与经典发展经济学推崇制造业作为经济增长引擎的理论内涵高度一致。中国进入中上等收入阶段后,制造业实际占比和全要素生产率同时下降,在理论和经验上都出现了"过早去工业化"的倾向,加大了落入中等收入陷阱的风险。加快建设制造强国,发展先进制造业,提升传统产业发展的质量和效益,是中国当前工业发展战略的现实选择。
When high-income East Asian economies entered the upper middle income stage,the actual share of manufacturing and total factor productivity maintained long-term growth,in a typical pattern that is highly consistent with the classic theory that sees manufacturing as an engine of economic growth.When China entered the upper middle income stage,the actual share of manufacturing industry and total factor productivity both fell at the same time,exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward "premature deindustrialization"that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap.Accelerating China's development as a major manufacturer and enhancing the quality and efficiency of traditional industry are realistic options for the country's current industrial development strategy.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第12期94-116,共23页
Social Sciences in China
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDB149)
中国社会科学院重大问题中外合作研究项目"中等收入陷阱问题研究"的资助
