摘要
针对有寿件工作寿命分布不确定、备件数量难预测的问题,建立了一种基于正态近似的指数型有寿件备件需求预测模型;首先通过贝叶斯理论将有寿件的工作寿命分布近似为正态分布;然后利用正态分布的可加性建立其备件保障概率模型;最后在算例中通过与仿真结果的对比表明:本文模型能较为准确地计算备件需求量及备件保障概率,满足实际工程应用要求。
For the problem of uncertainty of work life distribution and difficulty in predicting demands for life-limited spares, a prediction model of demands for life-limited spares with exponential distribution is built based on approximate normal distribution. At first, work life of life-limited spares is approximate normal distribution based on Bayesian theory; Then Fill Rate model is got based on additive property of normal distribution; Finally, compared with simulation results, the example shows that this model can calculate the spares demand and its fill rate more accurately, and can meet demands of practical engineering application.
出处
《兵器装备工程学报》
CAS
2017年第11期89-92,共4页
Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering
关键词
有寿件
备件需求
备件保障概率
正态近似分布
life-limited spares
spares demand
Fill Rate
approximate normal distribution
