摘要
随着分布式光伏大量并网,分布式光伏容量预测作为配电网规划中的关键环节,是变电站、网架规划中综合负荷计算的重要依据。对规划区域内的分布式光伏容量预测评估进行了深入研究,提出了适用于主动配电网规划的分布式光伏发电时空预测方法。建立了配电网分布式光伏装机容量时空分布预测模型,并利用空区推论和时序发展的方法求取规划年空间分布式光伏容量分布。最后,对我国东部某城市规划新区内分布式光伏容量进行了时空预测仿真,得出该规划新区的规划年和饱和阶段的分布式光伏空间容量分布,验证了所提方法有效性和实用性。
With large number of distributed PV integrated into power grid,as a key link of distribution network planning,capacity forecasting of distributed PV is an important basis for comprehensive load calculation for substation and network planning.In this paper,forecasting evaluation of distributed PV capacity in area planning is studied in-depth,and a temporal and spatial forecasting method of distributed PV generation is proposed for active distribution network planning.A model for forecasting temporal and spatial distribution of distributed PV installed capacity in distribution network is established.By using method of vacant area inference and temporal order of area development,spatial distribution of distributed PV capacity in planning years is obtained.Finally,temporal and spatial forecasting of distributed PV capacity in a new urban planning area in East China is simulated.Distribution of distributed PV capacity of this new planning area in planning and saturation years is obtained,thus validity and practicability of this method are verified.
出处
《电网技术》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期3917-3925,共9页
Power System Technology
关键词
主动配电网规划
分布式光伏
时空预测
容量饱和
空区推论
时序发展
active distribution network planning
distributed PV generation
temporal and spatial prediction
spatial capacity saturation
vacant area inference
temporal order of area development
