摘要
为对某一调度操作可能造成的系统风险进行数值化的评价,将风险理论引入调度操作风险量化评估中,提出一种满足风险完备性的评估方法。该方法充分考虑了调度操作风险的危害后果和发生概率,在传统调度操作风险危害评价的基础上,运用N-1最优潮流模型计算切负荷指标,并考虑关注度和社会时期的影响作用,对风险危害值进行校正。此外,计及调度操作过程中影响风险可能性的多维不确定因子,分析并建立风险概率评价体系,用于评估调度操作风险的发生概率。基于风险危害和风险概率得出最终的调度操作风险。基于IEEE30节点系统的计算结果表明,该方法通过评估各调度操作步骤的风险情况,可在调度操作执行前进行风险预演,辅助调度运行人员在下令前对操作可能引起的各类风险预先制定预控策略,能够有效降低调度操作的风险水平,维护电力系统的安全稳定运行。
In addition to giving a numerical evaluation of the potential system risk that a certain dispatch operate may bring,this paper introduces the risk theory to the quantitative evaluation of dispatch operation and proposes a complete evaluating method of risk.In this method,the consequence and probability of the risk of dispatch operation is fully considered.The method,based on the traditional evaluation of the dispatch operation risk and using N-1 OPF model in the calculation of loss of load and considering the impact of attention and social situation,revises the hazard value of risk.Besides,it considers the various uncertain factors that affect the probability of the risk,and builds a risk evaluation system to evaluate the probability of the dispatch operation risk.Based on the hazard and probability of the risk,the paper works out the final dispatch operation risk.The paper also uses the IEEE30 node system to verify the effectiveness of the method.
出处
《电网与清洁能源》
北大核心
2017年第9期32-40,45,共10页
Power System and Clean Energy
基金
广西电网公司科技项目(GXKJXM20151051)
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2013CB228205)~~
关键词
调度操作
完备性
风险量化评估
N-1最优潮流
辅助决策
dispatch operation
completeness
risk quanti-tative evaluation
N-IOPF
assistant decision
