摘要
近年来中国人力资本积累迅速,但这有可能造成人力资本回报率大幅降低。本文采用总和生产率法,对中国人力资本的规模进行更为精确的测度,根据增长核算框架推导出人力资本和简单劳动的报酬水平,采用明瑟方程法和投资收益法计算出劳动者投资高等教育的投资回报率。研究结果表明,按照明瑟方程法计算的人力资本回报率从1982年的60%以上迅速下降到1984年的34%,随后持续下降至2015年的10%并保持至2030年。采用投资收益法计算的总投资回报倍数在20世纪80年代达25倍左右,从80年代末起快速下降至2026年的5.8倍;2000年前各世代接受人力资本的年投资回报率在职业生涯的顶峰可以达到50%以上,而2010年以后接受高等教育的世代只能维持在20%-30%左右。这表明,中国的高等教育回报率降低将成为未来经济发展的重要问题。为了确保人力资本得到合理的回报,中国未来应努力消除人力资本定价机制扭曲,鼓励人力资本密集行业发展,促进服务贸易和人力资本的资本化。
Recent years witnessed rapid accumulation of human capital,which may result in quick reduction of returns to human capital investment. This paper employs aggregated productivity approach to get a more precise China's human capital supply,with which the earnings of human capital and raw labor,and returns to higher education are calculated via Mincer's approach and ROI approach. It is found that the Mincerian returns to human capital drops from 60% in 1982 to34% in 1984,and gradually declines to 10% till 2030. The total ROI of human capital amounts to 25 folds in 1980 s,declined rapidly in late 1980 s to 5. 8 folds in 2026. For cohorts enrolled in higher education programs before 2000,annual ROI may reach to 50% in their peak time of careers,whereas for cohorts later than 2000 the number may be around 20%-30%. These results indicate that China's declining returns to investment on higher education will be a critical challenge in the future. In order to ensure reasonable returns rate,it is highly recommended that pricing mechanism of human capital should be eliminated,the development of human capital intensive industries should be encouraged,export of human capital intensive service should be accelerated,and human capital should be capitalized as assets.
出处
《金融评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期28-43,共16页
Chinese Review of Financial Studies
基金
国家社科基金青年项目"新常态下我国经济增长转型与结构变迁研究"(项目编号:16CJL022)的阶段性研究成果
