摘要
基于2005年7月至2017年3月的月度数据,运用LT-TVP-VAR模型研究我国货币政策对房价和汇率的调控效果和时变反应特征。研究结果表明:我国货币政策与房价和汇率之间存在显著的门限效应。在房地产市场低迷,人民币存在贬值压力的时期,我国货币政策的调控效果更为显著,因而在目前阶段,我国货币政策对汇率的调控效果优于房价。另外,我国货币政策主要依赖于数量型货币政策工具,并相应搭配利率政策调控房价和汇率,但近年来央行愈加谨慎采取粗放式货币政策工具,更多地采用结构化政策工具发放货币,来对我国房价和汇率进行针对性调整。
Based on the monthly data from July 2005 to March 2017,we use the LT-TVP-VAR model to study the effect and time-varying response of China's monetary policy on house price and exchange rate.The results show that there is a significant threshold effect among China's monetary policy and house price and exchange rate.In the period of the slump in the real estate market and the devaluation of the RMB,the effect of monetary policy is more significant in China.Therefore,at the present stage,exchange rate control effect is better than house prices.In addition,China's monetary policy mainly depends on the quantitative monetary policy tools and the corresponding interest rate policy with the regulation of housing prices and exchange rates,but in recent years the central bank is more cautious to take extensive monetary policy tools,more use of structured policy tools to issue currency on China's housing prices and the exchange rate for targeted adjustments.
出处
《中南财经政法大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期88-95,共8页
Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law
