摘要
本文从国有企业与民营企业在中国的上、下游产业链上的行业分布的变化入手,根据作者所提出的"垂直结构"理论,解释为何中国国企和民企的相对利润率呈现一波三折的态势,并且分析这个过程中国企与民企之间的互动关系。作者认为,2008年国际金融危机以来,外需相对下降,由民营企业主导的下游部门的出口受到很大抑制,导致下游部门对于某些关键的由国有企业垄断的上游产业的引致需求也随之下降,进而引起上游国企的利润大幅下降,并且导致上游产业中僵尸企业的比重高于下游产业中僵尸企业的比重。基于上述"垂直结构"的逻辑,如果不尽快对上游国企进行改革,那么随着劳动力成本、土地成本的不断提高,人民币的升值,对于下游的民营企业而言,上游国企垄断的金融、能源等中间服务与中间产品的高昂成本将可能会成为压垮下游民营企业的最后一根稻草。如果下游民营企业被压垮,那么上游国企本身的盈利能力也会降低,进而拖垮整体经济的增长。因此,国企改革刻不容缓并且应该循因施策,认清当前国企改革与1990年代国企改革的关键差异,把控好国企改革的速度和次序;应引入竞争机制,降低上游产业进入壁垒,打破国企行政垄断;适应市场环境调整上游国有企业的产能结构,并且需要逐渐剥离国有企业的政策性负担。
The global financial crisis in 2008 dampened external demand for products of China’s downstream industries dominated private enterprises.Consequently,demand for products and services of the country’s upstream industries,dominated by monopolistic SOEs,also plunged,leading to sharp declines in those State firms’profitability.As a result,many firms had become zombie enterprises and the proportion of zombie firms in upstream industries is higher than that in downstream sectors.Given such a vertical structure,upstream SOEs must be reformed as soon as possible;otherwise they would eventually choke off growth of downstream private firms as costs of labor and land keep rising.Stagnation of downstream private sectors would in turn hurt upstream SOEs and would slow overall growth.Policymakers should be fully aware of the difference between the current SOE reform and that carried out in late 1990s.In the current reform,the key is to put a competition-oriented mechanism in place,break the administrative monopoly of SOEs,and lower the barriers for entry into upstream industries.
出处
《国际经济评论》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期9-28,共20页
International Economic Review
