摘要
近年来中国经济增速放缓,但就业形势稳中有进。利用1978~2015年的时间序列数据组,引入中介效应和渠道机制检验的实证分析,对中国经济、"产业—就业结构"与就业之间的联动机制进行研究,在此基础上针对当前经济与就业的变动态势给予解答。研究发现:"产业—就业结构"变动是经济和就业之间的中介变量和主要作用渠道,可以调节经济对就业产生的影响;而产业结构仅是影响就业的因素之一,并不是经济和就业之间的中介变量。近几年,虽然中国经济增速放缓,但经济总量依旧较大,对就业仍有拉动力。产业结构和就业结构的同时改善支持和加大了这种拉动,而这仅靠产业结构的变动还远远不够。同时,积极的就业政策和经济体制改革也是就业形势良好的推动器。
China＇ s economic growth has been slowed down in recent years, but the employment situation was relatively good and stable. By using the time series data sets from 1978 to 2015 and introducing the mediating effect and channel mechanism test to make empirical analysis, the paper studies the linkage mechanism among China＇ s economy, ＂industrial- employment structure＂ and employment. Based on the analysis, further studies are made by taking China＇ s econo- my at present and the changing trend of employment into consideration. Researches show that the change of ＂industrial -employment structure＂ is the mediating variable and the main function channel between economy and employment, which can adjust the impact of economy on employment. Industrial structure is only one of the factors which influence employment and it is not the mediating ic growth variable between economy and employment. In recent years, although China＇ s economhas been slowed down, the economic aggregate keeps large, and it has pulling force on employment. The improvement of industrial structure and employment structure at the same time supported and increased the pulling effect, but the change of industrial structure is far from enough. Besides, positive employment policy and the reform of economic system can also be regarded as accelerators of employment.
作者
王静文
WANG Jing - wen(School of Labor Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)
出处
《云南财经大学学报》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第5期26-41,共16页
Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics
关键词
经济总量
就业形势
产业—就业结构
中介效应
渠道机制
Economic Aggregate
Employment Situation
Industrial - employment Structure
Mediating Effect
Channel Mechanism
