摘要
为系统分析油气罐区安全水平各影响因子,求证罐区安全水平与安全投入的相关性,基于系统动力学(SD)的理论和方法,构建罐区安全水平影响因子SD模型。首先从人的安全行为、安全管理和设备3个宏观维度建立因果循环图;然后结合微观因子构建存量流量图,从宏观和微观角度对罐区安全水平影响因子进行定性、定量动态仿真。结果表明:提高油气罐区安全水平需要长期持续的安全投入,在同等时间内,各宏观因子平均增长率从大到小依次是人的安全行为水平、安全管理水平、设备安全水平;微观因子中安全教育培训对罐区安全水平影响最大。加强对罐区安全管理中人的安全行为及安全教育培训的安全投入及日常监管可提高油气罐区安全水平。
To analyze factors influencing safety level in a given oil-gas tank area,and study the relationship between safety level and safety input in this area,an influence factor SD model was built based on the theory and method of SD. At first,a causal cycle diagram was established from three macro dimensions of human safety behavior,safety management and device. Then,a stock flow diagram was constructed on the basis of considering the micro factors. Effects of the factors on the safety level were simulated qualitatively and quantitatively from both the macro and micro perspectives. The result indicates that the improvement of safety level in oil-gas tank area needs long term and continuous safety input,that in terms of contribution to the safety level,there is a descending order of safety behavior level,safety management level and device safety level,and that in micro factors,the safety education training has maximum influence on the safety level.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期43-48,共6页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
黑龙江省自然科学基金资助(E2016012)
关键词
油气罐区
系统动力学(SD)
仿真分析
影响因子
安全投入
oil gas storage tank area
system dynamics（SD）
simulation analysis
influencing factors
safety investment
