摘要
本文采用空间杜宾模型针对2005—2015年中国31个省级区域的面板数据,就城镇化发展及其他影响因素对经济增长的影响程度进行测算,并将其对经济增长的影响效应进行分解。研究结果表明,城镇化率每提高1个百分点,能够促进本地区经济增长0.25%,但对相邻地区经济增长的空间溢出效应为负,带来相邻地区经济减少0.49%。"十三五"时期及中长期亟须区域协同推进新型城镇化建设,发挥新型城镇化在新常态下拉动经济增长的重要作用。
This paper uses the spatial Durbin model to estimate the degree of urbanization and the impact of other factors on economic growth with provincial panel data of China from 2005 to 2015, and the effect on economic growth is decomposed. The results show that the increase of the urbanization rate by 1% can promote the regional economic growth by 0.25%. However, the spillover effect of the neighboring regions is negative, whose economy will decrease by 0.49%. In the ＂ 13th Five-Year Plan＂ and the long-term, regional coordination to promote new urbanization is urgently needed, and new type urbanization in the new normal plays an important role in economic growth
作者
马忠玉
肖宏伟
MA Zhongyu XIAO Hongwei(State Information Center, Beijing 100045 Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872)
出处
《经济与管理研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2017年第9期26-35,共10页
Research on Economics and Management
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“气候变化经济影响综合评估模式研究”(2016YFA0602601)
全国统计科学研究重点项目“新常态下我国潜在经济增长率测算及动力转换研究”(2016LZ24)
