摘要
论文使用1995—2010年中国29个省的面板数据,构建包含城市化因素的地区经济增长模型,运用面板协整和误差修正方法,对中国城市化和经济增长之间关系进行了实证检验。研究结果表明:从长期看,城市化对经济增长具有显著的拉动作用,表现为城市化和经济增长之间存在稳定的长期协整关系,且城市化率每提高1个百分点,可带动经济增长平均增加2.33个百分点;从短期看,城市化对经济增长的影响存在一定的滞后效应,表现为我国区域生产函数的长期稳定(协整)关系对短期经济波动具有显著的抑制调节作用的同时,滞后二期的城市化水平变动对短期实际产出变动存在正向促进作用。进一步,论文将实证结果与国内城市化水平提高的增长效应的相关研究进行了比较分析,并讨论了本文研究结论的深层次原因以及相应的政策启示。
By using the panel data from 1995 to 2010 covering 29 provincial level regions in China and applying both the panel cointegration and the panel vector error correction model, this paper explores the relationship between urbanization and economic growth by establishing an economic growth model which embodied the factor of urbanization. The main findings are： There are longterm cointegration relationship between urbani zation and economic growth, and the increase of one percent in urbanization rate will promote the growth of China＇s economy by 2.33 percent. We can see that the effect of urbanization on boosting China＇s economic growth is significant and considerable. The effect of inhibition （adjustment） of the longterm stability （cointegration） relationship po wi sitive and significant, though there is a hysteresis effect. Moreover, after comparison th other research results in China, the paper analyzes reasons and implication behind e empirical results, and puts forward suggestions.
出处
《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第2期47-54,共8页
Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences
关键词
城市化
经济增长
面板协整
误差修正模型
urbanization
economic growth
panel co-integration
error correction model
