摘要
随着全球气候变暖,近几年气象灾害频发,对以公共交通出行为主的大城市交通系统影响严重。以城市常见的台风、暴雨为研究背景,建立多元Logit模型,对公共交通乘客的出行选择行为进行预测,得出费用、途中时间和换乘次数三个决策变量对出行选择行为有负效应,其中,途中时间是最主要的影响因素,乘客倾向于选择时间和速度有保证性的地铁方式出行。同时为公共交通管理部门在应急预警方案的制定方面,提供了理论支持,具有较强的现实意义。
With global wanning, the meteorological disasters occurred frequently these years. These affected the urban transport system based on public transport seriously. The research built a multi-Logit model to forecast the travel behavior choice of public transport passengers based on the typhoon and rainstorm. As a result, cost, travelling time and transfer times are the three decision variables which have negative effects on the travel behavior choice. Among the three variables, travelling time is the main factor. Passengers tend to choose the subways which can guarantee the travelling time. The research provides a theoretical support for making emergency plan by the public transport management. It has practical significance and application value.
出处
《综合运输》
2017年第8期40-43,67,共5页
China Transportation Review
基金
上海市科技发展基金软科学研究资助项目(16692107300)
