摘要
[目的]分析江苏省昆山市2006~2015年膀胱癌的发病趋势。[方法]2006~2015年膀胱癌发病病例来源于昆山市肿瘤登记报告;计算历年膀胱癌粗发病率与年龄标化发病率(中标发病率)。用平均年度变化百分比(APC)及其95%CI评价膀胱癌发病率在年份之间的变化趋势;用时间趋势与自回归模型结合的方法预测未来年份膀胱癌粗发病率。[结果]2006~2015年登记膀胱癌519例,占同期新发恶性肿瘤的2.12%。膀胱癌中标发病率在男女合计(APC=1.6%,95%CI:-0.6%~3.8%)、男性(APC=1.3%,95%CI:-1.2%~3.8%)和女性(APC=5.3%,95%CI:-2.1%~12.7%)无明显趋势变化;但30~69岁人群膀胱癌中标发病率变化趋势在男女合计(APC=4.1%,95%CI:0.5%~7.7%)和女性(APC=9.5%,95%CI:1.0%~18.0%)人群中明显上升。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2016~2020年膀胱癌粗发病率在男性和女性人群中均呈现持续上升趋势。[结论]虽然膀胱癌中标发病率无明显趋势变化,但是膀胱癌发病数逐年增加,因膀胱癌造成的疾病负担逐年增加,特别在30~69岁女性人群中上升趋势最为显著。
[Purpose] To explore the incidence trends of bladder cancer in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province. [Methods] Bladder cancer incidence cases were collected from cancer registry between2006-2015 in Kunshan City,Jiangsu Province. Crude rates and age standardized rate（ASR） were calculated. Annual percent changes（APC） and 95% confidence interval（CI） were used to examining the time trend of incidence,and time series analysis for incidence rate was adopted by stepwise autoregressive method. [Results] From 2006 to 2015,no changes were observed in both sex（APC=1.6%,95%CI：-0.6%-3.8%）,male（APC=1.3%,95%CI：-1.2%-3.8%） and female（APC=5.3%,95%CI：-2.1% -12.7%） on bladder cancer ASR. However,increased trends were observed whose age between 30-69 years in both sex（APC=4.1%,95%CI：0.5%-7.7%） and female（APC=9.5%,95%CI：1.0%-18.0%）. The stepwise autoregressive method of time series model demonstrated that the bladder cancer showed upward trend in the year 2016 to 2020. [Conclusions] Although the age standardized mortality of bladder cancer has no significant change in Kunshan city,but the numbers and the burden of bladder cancer diseases increase year by year. It is necessary to carry out the prevention and control measures,especially in those aged 30-69 years.
出处
《中国肿瘤》
CAS
CSCD
2017年第8期607-611,共5页
China Cancer
关键词
膀胱肿瘤
发病率
死亡率
江苏
bladder neoplasms
incidence rate
mortality rate
Jiangsu
