摘要
以A地区为研究对象,运用EVIEWS软件研究人口增长数、出生率、男女性别比和农业与非农业比重等相关人口结构指标,建立起相应的时间序列模型如AR模型、MA模型和ARIMA模型预测出某地区在不实行二孩政策下未来20年的人口结构变化趋势。并在假设该地区实行二孩政策的条件下,建立起性别比与出生率的回归关系模型,拟合效果较好,从而得出A地区在二孩政策下的最优出生率。
This paper takes A area as the research object, using EVIEWS software to study the population growth, the number of birth rate, sex ratio and the proportion of agriculture and non agriculture population struc- ture and other related indicators, establish the corresponding time series models such as AR model, MA model and ARIMA model to predict the population structure in the implementation of the two - child policy in the future 20 - year trends in a certain area. Under the assumption that the two - child policy is implemented in the region, the regression model of sex ratio and birth rate is established, and the fitting effect is good, so as to obtain the optimal birth rate of A in the area of the two - child policy.
出处
《佳木斯大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2017年第4期696-699,共4页
Journal of Jiamusi University：Natural Science Edition
