摘要
基于三峡库区1961—2005年气温逐日格点数据,评估由BCC_CSM1.1模式驱动的RegCM4区域气候模式、MPI-ESM-LR模式驱动的CCLM区域气候模式对三峡库区平均气温、极端高温的模拟能力,选用与观测值更为接近的区域气候模式模拟结果,预估三峡库区在RCP4.5温室气体排放情景下2016—2035年气温变化。结果表明:RegCM4和CCLM模式均能模拟出三峡库区多年平均气温、高温日数和高温强度的季节变化和空间分布形态,但均在库区东北部模拟的年平均气温偏低、高温日数偏少、高温强度偏小。同时,模式均能较好地反映出三峡库区年平均气温、年高温日数的年际变化,但对高温强度的年际变化模拟较差。总体而言,CCLM模式对三峡库区气温的模拟效果好于RegCM4。RCP4.5情景下,三峡库区2016—2035年平均气温、高温日数比当代(1986—2005年)分别增加0.6℃和5d,高温强度变化不明显。
Based on the daily temperature data from 1961 to 2005 of Three Gorges Reservoir, the capability of the RegCM4 driven by the BCC_CSM1. 1 and CCLM driven by the MPI-ESM-LR to simulate the annual mean temperature and extreme high temperature is examined. According to the regional climate model, in which simulations are closer to observations, projected are the temperature changes in Three Gorges Reservoir from 2016 to 2035 under the RCP4.5 scenario. The results show that the temporal and spatial changes of simulated annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity are broadly comparable with the observations. But both RegCM4 and CCLM underestimate the annual mean temperature, high temperature days, and high temperature intensity in the northeast part of the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Meanwhile, RegCM4 and CCLM can simulate the annual variations of mean temperature and high temperature days quite well, except for high temperature intensity. On the whole, the temperature simulated by CCLM is better than that by RegCM4. The annual mean temperature and high temperature days over the whole basin will increase 0.6℃ and 5 days in 2016-2035 under the RCP4.5 scenario, respectively, relative to the observations of 1986-2005. The variation of high temperature intensity is not obvious.
出处
《气象科技》
北大核心
2017年第3期469-476,491,共9页
Meteorological Science and Technology
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306053)
重庆市自然科学基金项目(cstc2012jjB0153)共同资助
