摘要
利用新疆101个气象台站1961-2014年逐日气温资料,以日平均气温稳定≤5℃为冬季采暖临界温度,使用线性趋势分析、累积距平和t-检验以及基于Arc GIS的空间插值技术,对冬季采暖期日数和采暖强度时空变化及其对气候变暖的响应,以及气候变暖对采暖能耗的可能影响进行了研究。结果表明:新疆采暖期日数和采暖强度总体呈现"北疆多,南疆少;山区多,平原和盆地少"的空间分布特点。近54a新疆年平均气温和冬半年平均气温分别以0.29℃/10a和0.36℃/10a的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.001)的上升趋势,受其影响,采暖期日数和采暖强度分别以-2.25d/10a和-53.86℃·d/10a的倾向率呈极显著(P<0.001)的减小趋势,并分别于1997年和1988年发生了突变,突变后较其之前,全疆平均采暖期日数缩短9.1d,采暖强度减小192.6℃·d,采暖能耗降低11.6%。
Based on the daily mean temperature data of 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961 - 2014, taking the daily mean temperature steadily under 5℃ as heating critical temperature, the spatial- temporal change characteristics of heating days and heating intensity, the response of heating days, heating intensity and heating energy consumption to climate warming were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T - test and spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. The main results showed the heating days and heating intensity were more in north than in south, and more in mountain regions than in plain and basin in Xinjiang. Mean temperature of annual and Oct. to Mar. were very significantly upward trend by the tendency rate of 0.29℃/10a and 0.36℃/10a; influenced by this, heating period days decreased by the rate of -2.25d/10a, heating intensity presented significantly weakening treod by the rate of -53.86℃· d/10a, and they had mutation in 1997 and 1988 respectively in recent 54 years. Before and after mutation, heating days reduced by 9.1 d, heating intensity reduced by 192.6℃ · d, and the heating energy consumption decreased of 11. 6% by an average in Xinjiang.
出处
《干旱区资源与环境》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第6期110-116,共7页
Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment
基金
新疆气象局科研项目(MS201512)资助
关键词
冬季采暖
采暖期日数
采暖强度
气候变暖
新疆
Xinjiang
winter heating
heating period days
heating intensity
climate warming
